{"F": {"ts_code": "301182.SZ", "name": "凯旺科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.9247, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 680334.07, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.8, 19.8, 16.0, 7.5, 1.1, 3.9], "rev_series": [4.4, 6.2, 5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 7.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.3, -0.6, -0.9, -1.2], "roe_series": [12.7, 8.4, 3.3, -6.0, -10.9, -15.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 7.5, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.05, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": -10.7, "roe_median": -6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.6, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.92, "capex_dep": 1.72, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 62.6, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 50.3, "np_yoy": -102.7, "np_vol": 106.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["安防类精密线缆连接组件", 17.0], ["安防类", 17.0], ["五金类组件及零件类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.3, "ret_prev2_year": 49.1, "ret_ytd": 66.6, "ret_pivot": 253.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": 21.8, "ret_250": 89.1, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 77.2, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 9, "hard": 43, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 63%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 5%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 89%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -20% / 22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "凯旺科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点。"]}}