{"F": {"ts_code": "301177.SZ", "name": "迪阿股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.47, "pe_ttm": 99.5452, "pb": 1.6081, "dv_ttm": 2.0433, "total_mv": 979471.9462, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.4, 70.1, 69.8, 68.8, 65.5, 65.8], "rev_series": [24.6, 46.2, 36.8, 21.8, 14.8, 15.2], "np_series": [5.6, 13.0, 7.3, 0.7, 0.5, 1.4], "roe_series": [63.0, 32.6, 10.7, 1.0, 0.8, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 68.8, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.0, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 99.88, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 19.0, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 294.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -25.5, "np_cagr3": -42.4, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": -53.6, "np_vol": 100.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 55.9, "fwd_pe2": 41.8, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["珠宝首饰", 25.0], ["珠宝首饰：求婚钻戒", 17.0], ["求婚钻戒", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.9, "ret_prev2_year": -22.0, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 47.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -17.9, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 76, "hard": 2, "bondness": 82}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 99.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.9 倍,次年 41.8 倍,PEG 1.64。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 68.8%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 68.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 99.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 99.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -3% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "迪阿股份:PE 比行业中位高 42.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 53.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}