{"F": {"ts_code": "301175.SZ", "name": "中科环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.6, "pe_ttm": 19.9469, "pb": 2.1691, "dv_ttm": 2.8571, "total_mv": 824252.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.6, 28.1, 28.9, 39.8, 40.1, 40.2], "rev_series": [6.9, 15.1, 16.0, 14.0, 16.6, 18.7], "np_series": [1.3, 1.7, 2.1, 2.7, 3.2, 3.8], "roe_series": [10.8, 11.2, 8.7, 8.2, 9.2, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 10.3, "gm_median": 39.8, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -25.7, "npm_median": 21.7, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 17.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 8.7, "interest_debt": 35.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 56.9, "debt_mv": 43.2, "payout": 61.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": 21.6, "rev_yoy": 36.1, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 4.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 17.5, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["生活类垃圾处理业务", 24.0], ["生活垃圾处理", 24.0], ["项目建造业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.1, "ret_ytd": -3.6, "ret_pivot": 41.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": 1.6, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 54, "hard": 29, "bondness": 65}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 4个百分点,营收 3 年复合 5.5%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 61%、股息率 2.9%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 36 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,资产负债率 57%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.9% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 19.9 倍 倒过来就是 5.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.8%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 10.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 8.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 8% / -21%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "中科环保:PE 比行业中位低 6.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}