{"F": {"ts_code": "301172.SZ", "name": "君逸数码", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.86, "pe_ttm": 140.1959, "pb": 2.6967, "dv_ttm": 0.4307, "total_mv": 401490.2996, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 34.3, 36.5, 35.6, 30.6, 25.3], "rev_series": [3.3, 3.5, 4.1, 4.2, 3.8, 4.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [21.1, 16.1, 14.8, 6.4, 3.2, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 34.3, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 6.94, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 19.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -21.6, "rev_yoy": 21.1, "np_yoy": -27.7, "np_vol": 15.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 45.8, "fwd_pe2": 33.3, "fwd_g1": 206.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智慧城市信息系统集成", 85.0], ["光学透镜及模具", 7.0], ["金融安防系统集成", 3.0], ["金融安防", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.3, "ret_prev2_year": -30.6, "ret_ytd": 6.0, "ret_pivot": 39.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -12.2, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 61.1, "pos_52w": 60.0}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 57, "hard": 14, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 140.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 45.8 倍,次年 33.3 倍,PEG 1.21。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.3%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 6.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -18% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "君逸数码:PE 比行业中位高 56.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}