{"F": {"ts_code": "301171.SZ", "name": "易点天下", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.28, "pe_ttm": 254.4755, "pb": 6.2106, "dv_ttm": 0.0696, "total_mv": 2367698.388, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.4, 16.9, 20.4, 24.4, 18.6, 14.3], "rev_series": [24.8, 34.2, 23.1, 21.4, 25.5, 38.3], "np_series": [2.3, 2.6, 2.6, 2.2, 2.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [17.6, 16.5, 10.8, 6.6, 6.7, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.3, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 6.21, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 15.0, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 23.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": -15.5, "rev_yoy": 28.5, "np_yoy": -45.3, "np_vol": 15.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 91.6, "fwd_pe2": 64.8, "fwd_g1": 178.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 2.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["整合营销服务", 54.0], ["广告平台业务", 44.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.3, "ret_prev2_year": 43.9, "ret_ytd": 23.0, "ret_pivot": 289.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": 5.5, "ret_250": 44.5, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 85.5, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 0, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 254.5 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 91.6 倍,次年 64.8 倍,PEG 2.23。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 254.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 7% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "易点天下:PE 比行业中位高 156.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}