{"F": {"ts_code": "301165.SZ", "name": "锐捷网络", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 109.7, "pe_ttm": 130.1829, "pb": 22.893, "dv_ttm": 0.3418, "total_mv": 12216591.308, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 37.4, 39.7, 38.9, 38.6, 35.5], "rev_series": [67.0, 91.9, 113.3, 115.4, 117.0, 143.2], "np_series": [3.0, 4.6, 5.5, 4.0, 5.7, 7.0], "roe_series": [32.8, 34.9, 18.8, 9.4, 13.0, 14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 165.0, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": -8.8, "fcf_ttm": -11.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 38.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 22.89, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 48.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 62.9, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 8.2, "rev_yoy": 32.8, "np_yoy": 53.5, "np_vol": 27.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 66.2, "fwd_pe2": 39.4, "fwd_g1": 97.0, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["网络设备", 89.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0], ["网络安全产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.4, "ret_prev2_year": 96.9, "ret_ytd": 74.0, "ret_pivot": 627.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": 93.5, "ret_120": 68.0, "ret_250": 69.6, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 79.6, "pos_52w": 74.1}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 62, "hard": 6, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 66.2 倍,次年 39.4 倍,PEG 0.97。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.6%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 70%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 94% / 68%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "锐捷网络:PE 比行业中位高 45.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点。"]}}