{"F": {"ts_code": "301163.SZ", "name": "宏德股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.13, "pe_ttm": 91.7713, "pb": 1.6592, "dv_ttm": 0.5404, "total_mv": 188740.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 18.4, 15.2, 18.0, 14.7, 15.5], "rev_series": [6.7, 7.6, 8.1, 7.0, 6.5, 8.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [16.5, 12.3, 6.2, 4.4, 1.9, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -8.6, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.1, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 41.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": -7.2, "rev_yoy": -15.7, "np_yoy": -80.1, "np_vol": 49.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["风电设备专用件", 24.0], ["电力设备类", 9.0], ["电力设备专用件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.7, "ret_prev2_year": -21.5, "ret_ytd": -13.3, "ret_pivot": 36.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -28.2, "ret_250": -19.4, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 43, "hard": 75, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.6%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "宏德股份:PE 比行业中位高 59.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点。"]}}