{"F": {"ts_code": "301162.SZ", "name": "国能日新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.6, "pe_ttm": 45.4722, "pb": 4.3345, "dv_ttm": 1.2841, "total_mv": 702090.512, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.7, 63.4, 66.6, 67.6, 65.9, 61.8], "rev_series": [2.5, 3.0, 3.6, 4.6, 5.5, 7.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.3], "roe_series": [33.8, 27.3, 10.7, 8.1, 8.4, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 65.9, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.5, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 4.33, "capex_dep": 2.74, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 52.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.9, "np_cagr3": 24.8, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": 52.5, "np_vol": 11.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 35.3, "fwd_pe2": 26.6, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源发电功率预测产品", 45.0], ["新能源并网智能控制系统", 14.0], ["其他业务", 12.0], ["合计特别调整", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.9, "ret_prev2_year": -11.8, "ret_ytd": 3.6, "ret_pivot": 114.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": -1.3, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 53.8, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 78, "hard": 38, "bondness": 30}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 52%,PE TTM 45.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 35.3 倍,PEG 1.07。", "自由现金流 0.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(21 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 65.9%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 65.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.74 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 1% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "国能日新:PE 比行业中位低 37.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}