{"F": {"ts_code": "301158.SZ", "name": "德石股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.21, "pe_ttm": 28.7825, "pb": 2.1193, "dv_ttm": 1.7026, "total_mv": 296618.1192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 35.3, 35.6, 35.6, 35.1, 33.8], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.5, 4.9, 5.7, 6.7, 7.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [10.3, 9.9, 8.0, 6.7, 7.5, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 35.3, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 46.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.6, "np_cagr3": 15.1, "rev_yoy": -6.2, "np_yoy": -30.0, "np_vol": 6.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["租赁及维修", 41.0], ["钻具产品", 39.0], ["装备产品", 17.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 84.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": 3.8, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 66.2, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 58, "hard": 20, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.8 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.3%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "德石股份:PE 比行业中位低 13.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}