{"F": {"ts_code": "301157.SZ", "name": "华塑科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.35, "pe_ttm": 115.5727, "pb": 3.3748, "dv_ttm": 0.2406, "total_mv": 374100.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.8, 43.2, 45.7, 39.8, 35.6, 36.6], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 2.8, 2.8, 2.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [48.8, 27.6, 22.3, 5.6, 3.5, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 39.8, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 15.57, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 18.4, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -20.2, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 28.6, "np_vol": 14.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["后备电池BMS", 37.0], ["储能PCS", 6.0], ["储能锂电BMS", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.2, "ret_prev2_year": 5.6, "ret_ytd": 20.2, "ret_pivot": 117.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": -4.4, "ret_120": 9.2, "ret_250": 10.0, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 58, "hard": 18, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 115.6 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.8%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 15.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -4% / 9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "华塑科技:PE 比行业中位高 46.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}