{"F": {"ts_code": "301156.SZ", "name": "美农生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.43, "pe_ttm": 46.377, "pb": 3.1399, "dv_ttm": 1.8456, "total_mv": 228845.001, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 29.6, 29.0, 29.9, 28.8, 30.6], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.5, 4.8, 5.0, 4.9, 5.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [28.4, 24.4, 9.5, 8.0, 6.4, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.1, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.14, "capex_dep": 2.37, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 92.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 1.5, "rev_yoy": 38.7, "np_yoy": -23.2, "np_vol": 18.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["饲料添加剂", 18.0], ["功能性饲料添加剂", 18.0], ["营养性饲料添加剂", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.1, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 53.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.1, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 77.5}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 53, "hard": 59, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.4 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 98%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 0% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "美农生物:PE 比行业中位高 10.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}