{"F": {"ts_code": "301153.SZ", "name": "中科江南", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.54, "pe_ttm": 49.0813, "pb": 3.6392, "dv_ttm": 0.8562, "total_mv": 659401.983, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.4, 54.7, 58.4, 56.4, 59.7, 58.9], "rev_series": [5.9, 7.4, 9.1, 12.1, 8.2, 8.3], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 2.6, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [35.0, 32.7, 24.6, 17.9, 5.9, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 58.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 21.2, "roe_median": 17.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 3.64, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 21.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 59.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": -26.9, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": 69.1, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 44.4, "fwd_pe2": 34.6, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["支付电子化解决方案", 23.0], ["支付电子化", 23.0], ["智慧财政", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.0, "ret_prev2_year": -35.2, "ret_ytd": -24.5, "ret_pivot": -11.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 8.4, "ret_120": -13.3, "ret_250": -31.8, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 43.3, "pos_52w": 68.1}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 71, "hard": 0, "bondness": 46}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 0%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 58.4%,稳定度 97%、ROE 近 5 年中位 17.9%。", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%,分红率 60%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.4%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "中科江南:PE 比行业中位低 33.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}