{"F": {"ts_code": "301149.SZ", "name": "隆华新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.54, "pe_ttm": 23.7096, "pb": 2.1679, "dv_ttm": 1.3511, "total_mv": 477386.0854, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 6.8, 6.7, 7.6, 4.1, 4.3], "rev_series": [24.1, 42.8, 31.7, 50.2, 56.2, 63.2], "np_series": [1.1, 1.9, 1.3, 2.5, 1.7, 1.4], "roe_series": [16.8, 17.4, 8.0, 14.3, 9.1, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 74.6, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 6.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.3, "fix_assets": 14.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 9.5, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.9, "np_cagr3": 3.9, "rev_yoy": 40.2, "np_yoy": 77.3, "np_vol": 57.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 7.6, "fwd_pe2": 6.8, "fwd_g1": 214.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["聚醚多元醇系列产品", 33.0], ["聚醚多元醇产品", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.3, "ret_prev2_year": -19.0, "ret_ytd": 5.1, "ret_pivot": 44.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": -4.0, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 38, "hard": 55, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.7 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -3% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "隆华新材:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}