{"F": {"ts_code": "301141.SZ", "name": "中科磁业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "磁性材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230403", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.93, "pe_ttm": 235.4138, "pb": 3.833, "dv_ttm": 0.5137, "total_mv": 482858.9118, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 26.7, 22.2, 15.7, 12.4, 14.6], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.5, 6.2, 4.8, 5.5, 7.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 0.9, 0.5, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [28.2, 30.3, 24.3, 5.7, 1.3, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_yield": -6.9, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.1, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.83, "capex_dep": 3.18, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": -28.1, "rev_yoy": 23.4, "np_yoy": -60.6, "np_vol": 61.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["钕铁硼永磁材料及器件", 18.0], ["烧结钕铁硼磁体", 18.0], ["永磁铁氧体磁体", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": 10.0, "ret_ytd": -25.2, "ret_pivot": 49.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.3, "ret_60": -18.2, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": -50.1, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 55, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.9%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 235.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -18% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "中科磁业:PE 比行业中位高 176.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}