{"F": {"ts_code": "301139.SZ", "name": "*ST元道", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信工程及服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": null, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": null, "trade_date": null, "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 17.0, 15.7, 15.1, 15.9, 12.8], "rev_series": [12.2, 16.2, 21.1, 17.8, 12.8, 13.9], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 1.3, 0.7, 0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [17.4, 17.7, 10.0, 3.7, 2.2, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.9, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": null, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 32.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -13.1, "np_cagr3": -58.7, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -444.1, "np_vol": 38.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["通信网络维护与优化服务", 27.0], ["通信网络技术服务", 27.0], ["信息通信软硬件产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.6, "ret_ytd": -82.0, "ret_pivot": -82.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.9, "ret_60": -33.0, "ret_120": -82.1, "ret_250": -83.8, "mdd_250": -89.8, "vol_250": 96.7, "pos_52w": 14.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 51, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 —(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -84%,最大回撤 -90%,年化波动 97%,现价在 52 周高点的 14%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -33% / -82%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "*ST元道:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点。"]}}