{"F": {"ts_code": "301138.SZ", "name": "华研精机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.79, "pe_ttm": 32.7712, "pb": 2.916, "dv_ttm": 1.7367, "total_mv": 345480.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.5, 40.9, 38.4, 38.9, 38.8, 39.4], "rev_series": [5.2, 5.6, 5.4, 5.3, 6.5, 6.8], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [26.3, 13.8, 7.6, 6.9, 9.2, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 38.9, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 61.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 5.1, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": 20.2, "np_vol": 19.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["瓶坯智能成型系统", 62.0], ["瓶坯模具", 13.0], ["服务、配件及其他", 13.0], ["瓶坯制品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.8, "ret_prev2_year": -6.5, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": 34.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": -22.4, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 60, "hard": 22, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.8 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.9%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.8 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 9% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "华研精机:PE 比行业中位低 9.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点。"]}}