{"F": {"ts_code": "301136.SZ", "name": "招标股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.85, "pe_ttm": 317.7247, "pb": 2.4392, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 353638.168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.4, 40.2, 37.3, 39.5, 39.0, 36.1], "rev_series": [6.5, 6.7, 7.4, 6.9, 6.0, 5.5], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.5, 0.2, -0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [11.0, 9.7, 4.4, 1.5, -0.4, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 39.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.44, "capex_dep": 3.32, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 24.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.7, "np_yoy": 166.5, "np_vol": 39.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["工程监理服务", 13.0], ["工程监理", 13.0], ["招标服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.1, "ret_prev2_year": -6.3, "ret_ytd": -36.6, "ret_pivot": 19.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -63.1, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 11, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 318 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.0%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 3.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 317.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 4% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "招标股份:PE 比行业中位高 276.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}