{"F": {"ts_code": "301133.SZ", "name": "金钟股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.956, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 393552.108, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.3, 27.8, 19.6, 25.5, 22.4, 17.9], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.5, 7.3, 9.3, 11.3, 11.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.9, 0.9, -0.1], "roe_series": [12.2, 6.8, 6.4, 9.7, 7.9, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -4.8, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 22.4, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -13.8, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.0, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 3.61, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 42.1, "debt_mv": 14.0, "payout": 18.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -241.4, "np_vol": 60.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车轮毂装饰件", 44.0], ["合计特别调整", 5.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.5, "ret_prev2_year": -19.9, "ret_ytd": -15.4, "ret_pivot": 71.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.4, "ret_60": -18.9, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": 20.0, "mdd_250": -55.7, "vol_250": 65.1, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 72, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 3.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / -19% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "金钟股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点。"]}}