{"F": {"ts_code": "301132.SZ", "name": "满坤科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.58, "pe_ttm": 57.0088, "pb": 3.1719, "dv_ttm": 1.0886, "total_mv": 571316.5596, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 18.8, 19.4, 19.6, 18.6, 18.0], "rev_series": [9.6, 11.9, 10.4, 12.2, 12.7, 16.5], "np_series": [1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 1.2], "roe_series": [23.8, 17.7, 9.3, 6.6, 6.1, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.5, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 41.7, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 54.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": 3.8, "rev_yoy": 24.0, "np_yoy": -30.5, "np_vol": 7.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["印刷电路板", 42.0], ["其他业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.3, "ret_prev2_year": -2.9, "ret_ytd": 17.3, "ret_pivot": 83.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": -1.7, "ret_250": -6.9, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 47, "hard": 63, "bondness": 30}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 6% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "满坤科技:PE 比行业中位低 8.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}