{"F": {"ts_code": "301131.SZ", "name": "聚赛龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220314", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.33, "pe_ttm": 122.3356, "pb": 1.6991, "dv_ttm": 1.0647, "total_mv": 182190.1125, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 12.4, 10.2, 10.8, 9.9, 12.8], "rev_series": [11.1, 13.0, 13.0, 14.8, 17.1, 16.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [21.4, 15.1, 5.6, 4.7, 4.6, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -6.7, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 3.02, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 48.3, "debt_mv": 36.3, "payout": 50.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -1.7, "rev_yoy": 22.7, "np_yoy": -82.5, "np_vol": 19.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["改性通用塑料", 62.0], ["改性工程塑料", 24.0], ["贸易产品", 5.0], ["原料贸易", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.7, "ret_prev2_year": -31.7, "ret_ytd": -30.7, "ret_pivot": 22.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -36.1, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 32.5, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 40, "hard": 52, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 3.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 122.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -7% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "聚赛龙:PE 比行业中位高 81.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}