{"F": {"ts_code": "301128.SZ", "name": "强瑞技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 117.15, "pe_ttm": 98.1488, "pb": 17.677, "dv_ttm": 0.4878, "total_mv": 1696540.527, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 37.5, 31.4, 31.2, 30.3, 25.6], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.2, 4.6, 6.7, 11.3, 18.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.4, 0.6, 1.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [26.9, 10.1, 4.7, 6.7, 11.4, 15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.5, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 6.0, "pb_calc": 17.68, "capex_dep": 3.91, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 58.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 58.5, "np_cagr3": 54.4, "rev_yoy": 63.7, "np_yoy": 56.8, "np_vol": 39.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 60.3, "fwd_pe2": 39.0, "fwd_g1": 63.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["散热部件", 25.0], ["散热器", 25.0], ["设备", 19.0], ["治具", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 153.5, "ret_prev2_year": 25.4, "ret_ytd": 63.8, "ret_pivot": 481.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -30.1, "ret_120": 55.6, "ret_250": 40.0, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 74.7, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 50, "hard": 19, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 98.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 60.3 倍,次年 39.0 倍,PEG 1.10。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.2%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 3.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -30% / 56%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "强瑞技术:PE 比行业中位高 55.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}