{"F": {"ts_code": "301127.SZ", "name": "武汉天源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.35, "pe_ttm": 70.3692, "pb": 3.4042, "dv_ttm": 0.2181, "total_mv": 1169520.6455, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.3, 37.8, 28.7, 29.5, 33.5, 34.4], "rev_series": [5.5, 7.6, 12.7, 19.5, 19.9, 17.1], "np_series": [1.5, 1.6, 2.0, 2.8, 3.3, 2.2], "roe_series": [26.7, 12.7, 10.1, 12.0, 11.4, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.5, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -19.0, "fcf_yield": -16.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -15.6, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.8, "fix_assets": 16.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.34, "capex_dep": 86.73, "interest_debt": 52.4, "debt_ebitda": 11.8, "debt_ratio": 64.8, "debt_mv": 44.8, "payout": 17.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": 2.8, "rev_yoy": 4.7, "np_yoy": -41.0, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 41.3, "fwd_pe2": 33.4, "fwd_g1": 70.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["环保整体解决方案", 23.0], ["污水处理整体解决方案", 23.0], ["环保项目运营服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.0, "ret_prev2_year": 97.6, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 123.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.6, "ret_60": 41.8, "ret_120": 0.7, "ret_250": 10.6, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 68.2, "pos_52w": 83.4}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 52, "hard": 25, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 70.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 41.3 倍,次年 33.4 倍,PEG 1.72。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 86.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 42% / 1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "武汉天源:PE 比行业中位高 44.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}