{"F": {"ts_code": "301123.SZ", "name": "奕东电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 76.18, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.3275, "dv_ttm": 0.1296, "total_mv": 1787487.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 27.9, 21.7, 14.9, 11.5, 16.1], "rev_series": [11.8, 15.0, 15.6, 14.7, 17.1, 22.7], "np_series": [1.8, 2.0, 1.4, -0.0, -0.6, -0.7], "roe_series": [24.8, 21.6, 6.7, -0.1, -2.1, -2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.7, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -10.2, "npm_median": -0.2, "roe_median": -0.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 15.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 6.33, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 40.1, "np_yoy": 322.5, "np_vol": 888.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 64.0, "fwd_pe2": 40.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 1.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["连接器零组件", 16.0], ["连接器及零组件", 16.0], ["柔性电路板", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 261.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": 3.6, "ret_pivot": 408.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": -21.8, "ret_120": 34.8, "ret_250": 78.0, "mdd_250": -58.2, "vol_250": 92.1, "pos_52w": 59.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 56, "bondness": 12}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 92%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -22% / 35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "奕东电子:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.3个百分点。"]}}