{"F": {"ts_code": "301120.SZ", "name": "新特电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.05, "pe_ttm": 114.9635, "pb": 3.5765, "dv_ttm": 0.3568, "total_mv": 561554.4118, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.1, 35.7, 37.0, 33.4, 23.0, 22.6], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.5, 3.8, 4.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 0.7, -0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [12.8, 11.7, 8.4, 4.4, -3.1, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.58, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": -23.9, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 109.3, "np_vol": 114.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["变压器", 39.0], ["储能系列", 8.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.2, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 101.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -15.5, "ret_120": -40.2, "ret_250": 1.0, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 75.5, "pos_52w": 50.6}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 49, "hard": 11, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 115.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -16% / -40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "新特电气:PE 比行业中位高 71.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点。"]}}