{"F": {"ts_code": "301118.SZ", "name": "恒光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.09, "pe_ttm": 64.4336, "pb": 1.803, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 254246.299, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 41.4, 27.4, 9.5, 8.2, 12.1], "rev_series": [6.4, 9.3, 10.8, 9.4, 12.3, 15.0], "np_series": [1.1, 2.4, 2.0, -0.4, -0.6, -0.2], "roe_series": [19.6, 25.1, 14.2, -2.6, -4.5, -1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -6.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 12.1, "gm_std": 12.8, "gm_stab": -0.06, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": -0.8, "roe_median": -1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.8, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.8, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.8, "np_yoy": 723.0, "np_vol": 89.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["氯化工产品链", 28.0], ["硫化工产品链", 22.0], ["其他产品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.4, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": -6.7, "ret_pivot": 59.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": -19.8, "ret_120": -18.1, "ret_250": -7.3, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 10, "hard": 83, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 -6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 -6%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -20% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "恒光股份:PE 比行业中位高 28.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}