{"F": {"ts_code": "301116.SZ", "name": "益客食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8019, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 439551.0284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.4, 3.5, 3.0, 2.2, 4.4, 2.4], "rev_series": [143.9, 164.1, 187.1, 218.9, 208.4, 189.6], "np_series": [1.4, 1.2, 0.5, -1.7, 1.0, -2.8], "roe_series": [10.6, 8.1, 3.0, -9.2, 5.7, -17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 201.2, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 3.0, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 17.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 23.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 68.9, "debt_mv": 53.9, "payout": 67.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 118.6, "np_vol": 224.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["鸭产品", 18.0], ["鸡产品", 16.0], ["饲料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.1, "ret_ytd": -10.4, "ret_pivot": 2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.9, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -18.0, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 56, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.0%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.0%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 1% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "益客食品:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}