{"F": {"ts_code": "301111.SZ", "name": "粤万年青", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.52, "pe_ttm": 608.0542, "pb": 4.8308, "dv_ttm": 0.222, "total_mv": 360320.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.5, 69.3, 67.5, 68.6, 69.7, 60.7], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.5, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 3.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.0, -0.0], "roe_series": [21.0, 10.6, 4.4, 4.4, 0.5, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 68.6, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 11.1, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 4.83, "capex_dep": 2.27, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 16.9, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 107.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": 144.1, "np_vol": 75.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["药品销售收入", 27.0], ["药品", 27.0], ["医疗服务及健康管理", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.3, "ret_prev2_year": -33.6, "ret_ytd": 18.7, "ret_pivot": 71.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": -19.1, "ret_120": 13.5, "ret_250": 28.8, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 73.4, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 76, "hard": 8, "bondness": 65}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 608.1 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 68.6%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 68.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 608.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -19% / 14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "粤万年青:PE 比行业中位高 585.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.5个百分点。"]}}