{"F": {"ts_code": "301110.SZ", "name": "青木科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "电商服务", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.57, "pe_ttm": 30.7817, "pb": 3.1366, "dv_ttm": 0.7605, "total_mv": 486717.0958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.5, 47.2, 40.7, 41.9, 50.1, 55.3], "rev_series": [6.5, 8.8, 8.5, 9.7, 11.5, 14.1], "np_series": [1.2, 1.5, 0.7, 0.5, 0.9, 1.2], "roe_series": [54.6, 41.8, 7.1, 3.7, 6.4, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.8, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 47.2, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 3.14, "capex_dep": 3.07, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 15.0, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 76.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.7, "np_cagr3": 23.6, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 67.9, "np_vol": 45.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 21.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["电商代运营服务", 20.0], ["品牌孵化与管理业务", 16.0], ["品牌经销业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.3, "ret_prev2_year": 124.2, "ret_ytd": -20.0, "ret_pivot": 111.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 58, "hard": 21, "bondness": 34}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 68%,PE TTM 30.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 21.2 倍,PEG 0.61。", "自由现金流 1.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 35%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.2%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 3.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -2% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "青木科技:PE 比行业中位低 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点。"]}}