{"F": {"ts_code": "301109.SZ", "name": "军信股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.97, "pe_ttm": 13.7535, "pb": 1.3792, "dv_ttm": 4.9142, "total_mv": 1023463.7376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.2, 38.1, 56.6, 51.7, 42.0, 55.3], "rev_series": [11.0, 20.6, 15.7, 18.6, 24.3, 27.5], "np_series": [4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 5.1, 5.4, 7.2], "roe_series": [23.9, 20.8, 12.7, 10.1, 8.9, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.3, "np_ttm": 7.4, "ocf_ttm": 16.0, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 15.7, "gm_median": 51.7, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 35.1, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 10.82, "interest_debt": 31.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 30.4, "payout": 71.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.5, "np_cagr3": 15.4, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 6.9, "np_vol": 11.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 12.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["垃圾发电项目建设运营", 19.0], ["城市垃圾临时处理项目建设运营", 11.0], ["生活垃圾项目", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.1, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": -9.6, "ret_pivot": 50.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -25.2, "ret_250": -7.1, "mdd_250": -28.1, "vol_250": 27.8, "pos_52w": 74.8}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 60, "hard": 14, "bondness": 59}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 11个百分点,营收 3 年复合 20.5%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 71%、股息率 4.9%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 31 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍,资产负债率 36%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.9% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 13.8 倍 倒过来就是 7.3% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 15.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 10.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.8 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -0% / -25%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "军信股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}