{"F": {"ts_code": "301108.SZ", "name": "洁雅股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "生活用纸", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.6, "pe_ttm": 50.3148, "pb": 2.2691, "dv_ttm": 0.6477, "total_mv": 434466.932, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 32.8, 31.5, 29.6, 19.6, 25.4], "rev_series": [7.4, 9.8, 6.7, 6.2, 5.5, 7.7], "np_series": [1.8, 2.2, 1.4, 1.2, 0.2, 0.8], "roe_series": [50.9, 20.6, 8.1, 6.3, 1.1, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.8, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.27, "capex_dep": 5.64, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 25.8, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 36.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": -18.2, "rev_yoy": 35.1, "np_yoy": 27.9, "np_vol": 134.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 52.4, "fwd_pe2": 36.4, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["湿巾类产品", 29.0], ["湿巾", 29.0], ["面膜类产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.2, "ret_prev2_year": -25.0, "ret_ytd": 16.6, "ret_pivot": 156.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 64.3, "ret_120": 26.0, "ret_250": 21.3, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 94.9}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 48, "hard": 33, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.3 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 5.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 64% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "洁雅股份:PE 比行业中位高 25.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}