{"F": {"ts_code": "301103.SZ", "name": "何氏眼科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.41, "pe_ttm": 105.6506, "pb": 1.3575, "dv_ttm": 0.8983, "total_mv": 259321.4865, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.4, 40.3, 38.4, 41.8, 38.6, 41.0], "rev_series": [8.4, 9.6, 9.6, 11.9, 11.0, 10.9], "np_series": [1.0, 0.9, 0.3, 0.6, -0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [11.0, 8.6, 2.1, 3.0, -1.4, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 40.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 13.2, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 118.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -6.3, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": -6.3, "np_vol": 120.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["视光服务", 14.0], ["屈光不正手术矫正服务", 13.0], ["非手术治疗", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": -31.8, "ret_ytd": -15.7, "ret_pivot": -3.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 58, "hard": 20, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 105.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "何氏眼科:PE 比行业中位高 32.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}