{"F": {"ts_code": "301101.SZ", "name": "明月镜片", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "文化用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.96, "pe_ttm": 28.9573, "pb": 3.4043, "dv_ttm": 1.6624, "total_mv": 603730.2516, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.0, 54.7, 54.0, 57.6, 58.6, 57.3], "rev_series": [5.4, 5.8, 6.2, 7.5, 7.7, 8.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9], "roe_series": [14.3, 8.5, 9.5, 10.4, 11.0, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.8, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 57.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 52.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.9, "np_cagr3": 12.3, "rev_yoy": 14.4, "np_yoy": 16.3, "np_vol": 21.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 27.1, "fwd_pe2": 23.3, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["镜片", 38.0], ["原料销售", 5.0], ["原料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 3.3, "ret_ytd": -26.8, "ret_pivot": 49.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -16.6, "ret_250": -39.5, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 60.9}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 69, "hard": 21, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.0 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 57.3%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.0 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "明月镜片:PE 比行业中位低 18.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点。"]}}