{"F": {"ts_code": "301095.SZ", "name": "广立微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.19, "pe_ttm": 130.4286, "pb": 4.4762, "dv_ttm": 0.2804, "total_mv": 1405773.0409, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [85.3, 76.5, 67.8, 60.3, 61.9, 57.8], "rev_series": [1.2, 2.0, 3.6, 4.8, 5.5, 7.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 1.2, 1.3, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [28.2, 19.7, 6.9, 4.0, 2.5, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 61.9, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -17.5, "npm_median": 27.2, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 7.7, "pb_calc": 4.48, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 27.4, "np_cagr3": -10.2, "rev_yoy": 38.7, "np_yoy": 121.7, "np_vol": 42.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 95.2, "fwd_pe2": 62.3, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 1.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["测试设备及配件", 24.0], ["测试机及配件", 24.0], ["软件开发及授权", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.5, "ret_prev2_year": -30.1, "ret_ytd": -1.8, "ret_pivot": 96.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -28.7, "ret_120": -3.7, "ret_250": -23.6, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 68.1, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 66, "hard": 17, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(10 篇研报)前瞻 PE 95.2 倍,次年 62.3 倍,PEG 1.80。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.9%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -29% / -4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "广立微:PE 比行业中位高 47.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}