{"F": {"ts_code": "301093.SZ", "name": "华兰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.4, "pe_ttm": 551.4736, "pb": 6.0908, "dv_ttm": 0.0616, "total_mv": 1329939.936, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.9, 55.1, 43.6, 41.6, 38.8, 38.9], "rev_series": [4.5, 8.2, 5.8, 6.2, 5.9, 6.2], "np_series": [0.8, 2.2, 0.9, 1.2, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [21.5, 15.4, 3.9, 4.8, 2.1, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 41.6, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 16.0, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.09, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 15.3, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 51.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": -13.7, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": -82.5, "np_vol": 81.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 111.4, "fwd_pe2": 83.2, "fwd_g1": 395.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 3.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["常规胶塞", 23.0], ["覆膜胶塞", 19.0], ["笔式注射器用（卡式瓶）橡胶组件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 182.0, "ret_prev2_year": -25.1, "ret_ytd": 58.9, "ret_pivot": 452.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -25.9, "ret_60": -34.0, "ret_120": -5.2, "ret_250": 133.7, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 77.8, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 43, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 551.5 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.6%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 551.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 134%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -26% / -34% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "华兰股份:PE 比行业中位高 512.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}