{"F": {"ts_code": "301092.SZ", "name": "争光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.11, "pe_ttm": 67.9141, "pb": 2.9574, "dv_ttm": 0.6012, "total_mv": 579981.6783, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.7, 32.7, 38.5, 33.8, 31.4, 31.2], "rev_series": [4.9, 4.5, 6.8, 5.3, 5.7, 6.5], "np_series": [1.3, 0.7, 1.8, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [41.5, 7.7, 10.9, 6.2, 5.6, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.7, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 8.61, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 11.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 33.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -17.4, "rev_yoy": -12.7, "np_yoy": -27.9, "np_vol": 67.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 56.7, "fwd_pe2": 27.8, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 104.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["离子交换与吸附树脂产品", 33.0], ["离子交换与吸附树脂", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.0, "ret_prev2_year": -11.2, "ret_ytd": 23.5, "ret_pivot": 123.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.8, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": 10.0, "ret_250": 37.8, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 71.7, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 52, "hard": 80, "bondness": 36}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 11 亿,占总资产 50%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.8%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 93%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 50%)和定价权(毛利率 32.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 8.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -10% / 10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "争光股份:PE 比行业中位高 26.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.8个百分点。"]}}