{"F": {"ts_code": "301091.SZ", "name": "深城交", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211029", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.1, "pe_ttm": 97.1342, "pb": 4.3724, "dv_ttm": 0.0597, "total_mv": 1059832.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 37.6, 36.4, 37.3, 32.5, 40.6], "rev_series": [10.9, 11.6, 12.3, 14.2, 13.2, 12.1], "np_series": [1.5, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [43.1, 13.6, 8.0, 7.5, 4.6, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.1, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 37.3, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.2, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 4.37, "capex_dep": 3.4, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.6, "np_cagr3": -27.5, "rev_yoy": 49.7, "np_yoy": 510.1, "np_vol": 20.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 97.3, "fwd_pe2": 69.3, "fwd_g1": -0.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 2.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["大数据软件及智慧交通", 67.0], ["工程设计与检测", 11.0], ["规划咨询服务", 10.0], ["规划咨询", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.1, "ret_prev2_year": 171.3, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": -6.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": 14.8, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -37.9, "mdd_250": -58.8, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 58, "hard": 29, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 97.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 97.3 倍,次年 69.3 倍,PEG 2.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 97.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "深城交:PE 比行业中位高 56.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}