{"F": {"ts_code": "301090.SZ", "name": "华润材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.12, "pe_ttm": 36.3812, "pb": 1.6288, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1047304.5096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.8, 6.5, 7.1, 4.7, -0.8, 1.4], "rev_series": [123.8, 125.9, 173.3, 172.2, 180.6, 130.7], "np_series": [6.3, 4.8, 8.2, 3.8, -5.7, -0.9], "roe_series": [20.9, 10.0, 12.6, 5.4, -8.3, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 132.8, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": -3.1, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.8, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 33.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 15.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -9.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.1, "np_yoy": 308.5, "np_vol": 123.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.9, "fwd_pe2": 21.6, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": -3.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["聚酯产品", 50.0], ["原料及其他", 0.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": -35.9, "ret_ytd": 1.1, "ret_pivot": 8.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.5, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -16.5, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 76.8}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 20, "hard": 27, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 36 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 -3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "华润材料:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点。"]}}