{"F": {"ts_code": "301087.SZ", "name": "可孚医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.87, "pe_ttm": 30.1019, "pb": 2.214, "dv_ttm": 3.3957, "total_mv": 1223597.739, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.8, 43.8, 39.5, 43.3, 51.9, 53.2], "rev_series": [23.8, 22.8, 29.8, 28.5, 29.8, 33.9], "np_series": [4.2, 4.3, 3.0, 2.5, 3.1, 3.7], "roe_series": [53.2, 14.4, 6.1, 5.1, 6.4, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.6, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 43.8, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.9, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 8.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 25.4, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": 98.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 7.2, "rev_yoy": 38.5, "np_yoy": 20.8, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 25.0, "fwd_pe2": 20.1, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["康复辅助器具", 12.0], ["康复辅具类产品", 12.0], ["医疗护理类产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.3, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": 19.3, "ret_pivot": 95.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 18.8, "ret_120": -13.0, "ret_250": 34.0, "mdd_250": -28.1, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 85.8}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 56, "hard": 35, "bondness": 74}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 21%,PE TTM 30.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 25.0 倍,PEG 1.04。", "自由现金流 4.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(11 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.8%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 19% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "可孚医疗:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}