{"F": {"ts_code": "301086.SZ", "name": "鸿富瀚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211020", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 157.43, "pe_ttm": 130.5016, "pb": 10.0433, "dv_ttm": 0.2715, "total_mv": 1981480.1006, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 37.7, 40.5, 38.5, 33.9, 34.3], "rev_series": [6.5, 7.4, 7.2, 6.7, 8.2, 9.1], "np_series": [1.3, 1.4, 1.6, 1.1, 1.1, 1.0], "roe_series": [45.9, 12.9, 8.6, 5.6, 5.7, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.4, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.5, "fcf_ttm": -18.0, "fcf_yield": -9.1, "ocf_yield": -3.3, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 15.4, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 20.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 10.04, "capex_dep": 13.65, "interest_debt": 22.7, "debt_ebitda": 9.0, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 65.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": -13.8, "rev_yoy": 65.7, "np_yoy": 221.6, "np_vol": 16.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 36.7, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": 256.0, "fwd_g2": 106.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["消费电子功能性器件", 19.0], ["消费电子产品功能性器件", 19.0], ["散热产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 125.0, "ret_prev2_year": 12.6, "ret_ytd": 98.0, "ret_pivot": 594.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 32.4, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": 77.2, "ret_250": 228.0, "mdd_250": -60.0, "vol_250": 78.3, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 59, "hard": 63, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 130.5 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 39%、毛利率 37.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.1%(经营现金流/市值 -3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 13.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 228%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 32% / -0% / 77%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "鸿富瀚:PE 比行业中位高 84.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}