{"F": {"ts_code": "301081.SZ", "name": "严牌股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211020", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.92, "pe_ttm": 7376.2488, "pb": 3.3363, "dv_ttm": 0.314, "total_mv": 372071.892, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 27.8, 24.4, 31.2, 27.6, 25.0], "rev_series": [5.7, 7.1, 7.5, 7.2, 7.8, 9.0], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [22.0, 11.8, 6.6, 6.8, 4.2, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.4, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.25, "capex_dep": 4.96, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.0, "debt_ratio": 53.0, "debt_mv": 23.8, "payout": 93.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": -35.2, "rev_yoy": 21.3, "np_yoy": -78.3, "np_vol": 22.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["无纺系列", 19.0], ["机织系列", 16.0], ["机织", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.0, "ret_prev2_year": -22.2, "ret_ytd": 57.9, "ret_pivot": 159.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 30.7, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": 25.6, "ret_250": 52.2, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 76, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 7376.2 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 4.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7376.2 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 2% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "严牌股份:PE 比行业中位高 7342.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.0个百分点。"]}}