{"F": {"ts_code": "301080.SZ", "name": "百普赛斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.71, "pe_ttm": 76.0664, "pb": 5.1553, "dv_ttm": 0.7321, "total_mv": 1370105.5829, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [91.9, 92.6, 92.5, 91.3, 90.9, 91.2], "rev_series": [2.5, 3.8, 4.7, 5.4, 6.5, 8.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.7, 2.0, 1.5, 1.2, 1.7], "roe_series": [77.9, 13.1, 8.1, 6.0, 4.8, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 91.3, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 27.1, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.16, "capex_dep": 5.41, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 11.6, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 67.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.9, "np_cagr3": -6.7, "rev_yoy": 29.0, "np_yoy": 17.4, "np_vol": 29.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 59.4, "fwd_pe2": 44.5, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["重组蛋白", 37.0], ["抗体及其他试剂", 7.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.5, "ret_prev2_year": -24.6, "ret_ytd": 53.0, "ret_pivot": 277.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.2, "ret_60": 123.2, "ret_120": 84.6, "ret_250": 39.4, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 82.6}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 88, "hard": 31, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(10 篇研报)前瞻 PE 59.4 倍,次年 44.5 倍,PEG 1.75。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 91.3%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 91.3%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 5.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 123% / 85%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "百普赛斯:PE 比行业中位高 44.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}