{"F": {"ts_code": "301079.SZ", "name": "邵阳液压", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.56, "pe_ttm": 440.2497, "pb": 6.6429, "dv_ttm": 0.068, "total_mv": 320600.9612, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 26.4, 29.4, 25.6, 21.8, 24.3], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.8, 3.0, 2.8, 3.5, 2.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [33.1, 16.5, 10.9, 1.4, 1.3, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 25.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.64, "capex_dep": 2.24, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.6, "np_cagr3": -51.2, "rev_yoy": 17.3, "np_yoy": 20.4, "np_vol": 32.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["液压系统", 22.0], ["液压缸", 17.0], ["液压柱塞泵", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 107.8, "ret_prev2_year": -11.9, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 121.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -8.7, "mdd_250": -64.2, "vol_250": 75.8, "pos_52w": 42.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 60, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 440.2 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 440.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -9% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "邵阳液压:PE 比行业中位高 411.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点。"]}}