{"F": {"ts_code": "301078.SZ", "name": "孩子王", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "sw3": "专业连锁Ⅲ", "ind": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.29, "pe_ttm": 28.267, "pb": 2.0908, "dv_ttm": 0.7488, "total_mv": 921873.6441, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.5, 30.6, 29.9, 29.6, 29.7, 29.5], "rev_series": [83.6, 90.5, 85.2, 87.5, 93.4, 102.7], "np_series": [3.9, 2.0, 1.2, 1.1, 1.8, 3.0], "roe_series": [20.6, 8.2, 4.2, 3.4, 5.1, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 104.6, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 11.8, "fcf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_yield": 9.4, "ocf_yield": 12.8, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.8, "fix_assets": 15.7, "goodwill_ratio": 18.3, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 3.37, "interest_debt": 34.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 37.0, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.4, "np_cagr3": 34.6, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": 19.9, "np_vol": 51.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 22.0, "fwd_pe2": 17.7, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 29.0], ["销售商品", 24.0], ["母婴商品销售", 24.0], ["母婴商品销售：奶粉", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.4, "ret_prev2_year": 40.4, "ret_ytd": -29.3, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": -2.4, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": -43.8, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 37.5, "pos_52w": 56.7}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 57, "hard": 24, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.3 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.4%(经营现金流/市值 12.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.37 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.3 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业连锁Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.2% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 46%。", "孩子王:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}