{"F": {"ts_code": "301073.SZ", "name": "君亭酒店", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "酒店餐饮", "sw3": "酒店", "ind": "酒店餐饮", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.33, "pe_ttm": 149.6359, "pb": 4.4494, "dv_ttm": 0.3689, "total_mv": 395318.883, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 33.3, 36.0, 39.7, 32.7, 31.3], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.8, 3.4, 5.3, 6.8, 6.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [12.6, 9.4, 4.1, 3.1, 2.6, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 10.9, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.1, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 4.45, "capex_dep": 3.94, "interest_debt": 13.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 62.6, "debt_mv": 33.1, "payout": 93.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.3, "np_cagr3": -8.1, "rev_yoy": 1.4, "np_yoy": 54.0, "np_vol": 10.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 64.9, "fwd_pe2": 45.2, "fwd_g1": 131.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["住宿服务", 32.0], ["酒店管理", 8.0], ["餐饮服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": -22.0, "ret_pivot": 40.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -30.9, "ret_250": -19.5, "mdd_250": -55.0, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 60, "hard": 2, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 149.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 64.9 倍,次年 45.2 倍,PEG 1.48。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 3.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 149.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 2% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「酒店餐饮」9 家中位:PE 75.3 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 59%。", "君亭酒店:PE 比行业中位高 74.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 27.3个百分点。"]}}