{"F": {"ts_code": "301072.SZ", "name": "中捷精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.525, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 461572.124, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 18.1, 13.7, 15.5, 10.8, 6.9], "rev_series": [5.3, 6.2, 6.9, 7.2, 7.5, 8.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2, -0.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [9.6, 6.9, 4.6, 2.9, -3.7, -7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.6, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 6.52, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 45.8, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 27.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 5.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": 7.0, "np_vol": 79.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冲压零部件", 31.0], ["压铸零部件", 23.0], ["其他类", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": 95.1, "ret_pivot": 158.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.3, "ret_60": 25.5, "ret_120": 79.2, "ret_250": 54.3, "mdd_250": -32.0, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 95.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 62, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 26% / 79%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中捷精工:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.1个百分点。"]}}