{"F": {"ts_code": "301070.SZ", "name": "开勒股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210923", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 65.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.2065, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 832120.168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.9, 41.8, 39.3, 39.7, 32.7, 34.8], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.4, 3.0, 3.7, 3.3, 2.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3, -0.1, -0.0], "roe_series": [20.1, 9.5, 3.8, 3.4, -1.3, -0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 39.3, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 11.21, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 16.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 95.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": -3.4, "np_vol": 72.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["HVLS风扇", 26.0], ["HVLS", 26.0], ["工商业储能业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.2, "ret_prev2_year": 24.9, "ret_ytd": 50.0, "ret_pivot": 230.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": 47.9, "ret_250": 93.1, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 68.6, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 60, "bondness": 59}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 37%、毛利率 39.3% 两条都占,但所在行业(机械设备)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 93%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / 48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "开勒股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点。"]}}