{"F": {"ts_code": "301069.SZ", "name": "凯盛新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.13, "pe_ttm": 54.4998, "pb": 3.1292, "dv_ttm": 0.9077, "total_mv": 730969.9846, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.3, 36.9, 39.4, 33.2, 23.0, 27.3], "rev_series": [6.2, 8.8, 10.1, 9.9, 9.3, 10.3], "np_series": [1.6, 1.9, 2.3, 1.6, 0.6, 1.3], "roe_series": [21.0, 18.7, 17.4, 10.3, 3.4, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": 16.0, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 0.06, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 7.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 39.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": -18.2, "rev_yoy": 22.9, "np_yoy": 6.5, "np_vol": 65.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["羧基氯化物", 34.0], ["无机化学品", 29.0], ["无机化学产品", 29.0], ["羟基氯化物", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.5, "ret_prev2_year": -30.4, "ret_ytd": -41.8, "ret_pivot": 53.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -24.1, "ret_120": -28.8, "ret_250": -30.7, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 49, "hard": 44, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.5 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -24% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "凯盛新材:PE 比行业中位高 18.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.1个百分点。"]}}