{"F": {"ts_code": "301062.SZ", "name": "上海艾录", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210914", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.392, "dv_ttm": 1.2068, "total_mv": 322369.3224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 28.6, 23.5, 23.6, 21.6, 18.5], "rev_series": [7.7, 11.2, 11.2, 10.7, 11.9, 11.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 1.1, 0.8, 0.5, -1.2], "roe_series": [15.7, 16.2, 10.0, 6.6, 3.9, -8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 59.5, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.38, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 9.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.5, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 30.4, "payout": 32.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.4, "np_yoy": 480.0, "np_vol": 128.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纸袋及纸制品", 40.0], ["工业用纸包装", 40.0], ["注塑包装及其他", 6.0], ["智能包装系统", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -36.8, "ret_prev2_year": 21.9, "ret_ytd": -9.2, "ret_pivot": -22.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.1, "ret_60": 21.8, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 95, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 22% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "上海艾录:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.7个百分点。"]}}