{"F": {"ts_code": "301058.SZ", "name": "中粮科工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.96, "pe_ttm": 19.7471, "pb": 2.0151, "dv_ttm": 1.6467, "total_mv": 466639.488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.2, 21.4, 20.7, 24.7, 25.5, 23.0], "rev_series": [20.4, 21.7, 27.0, 24.1, 26.5, 30.6], "np_series": [1.3, 1.6, 1.7, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3], "roe_series": [10.5, 10.5, 9.3, 11.3, 11.3, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.2, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 48.8, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": 11.4, "rev_yoy": 14.7, "np_yoy": 3.8, "np_vol": 11.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 4.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["机电工程系统交付", 36.0], ["设计咨询", 7.0], ["设备制造", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": 12.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -35.3, "vol_250": 27.4, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 52, "hard": 10, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.7 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.7 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 8% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "中粮科工:PE 比行业中位低 21.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}