{"F": {"ts_code": "301057.SZ", "name": "汇隆新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.07, "pe_ttm": 62.6639, "pb": 3.3119, "dv_ttm": 0.8962, "total_mv": 258151.4658, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.4, 22.2, 16.1, 16.7, 13.8, 14.6], "rev_series": [5.4, 6.1, 6.2, 8.0, 8.4, 9.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [20.5, 15.0, 6.6, 7.4, 4.1, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.1, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -11.7, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.7, "fix_assets": 12.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.31, "capex_dep": 8.89, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 59.3, "debt_mv": 27.3, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": -4.7, "rev_yoy": 35.3, "np_yoy": 23.8, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["差别化有色涤纶长丝", 24.0], ["差别化有色涤纶长丝：差别化有色涤纶长丝DTY", 12.0], ["DTY", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 196.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": -38.6, "ret_pivot": 101.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -16.9, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -8.0, "mdd_250": -59.8, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 40, "hard": 100, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 8.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -17% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "汇隆新材:PE 比行业中位高 30.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点。"]}}